Independent evidence assessment  ·  MDL 3047 and beyond

How strong is the science, really?

An independent, methodologically rigorous assessment of the behavioral and neurocognitive evidence behind social-media harm claims — for the litigation funders, insurers, and counsel pricing risk in MDL 3047 and the cases that follow.

Request the scope memo See the methodology
For
Funders · Insurers · Counsel
Docket
MDL 3047 & state actions
Deliverable
25–40 pp · graded using GRADE
Turnaround
Four weeks
01 The 2026 reality

The question has shifted. The fight is no longer whether platforms can be sued.

Recent design-defect verdicts and settlements proved that these claims survive Section 230 and reach juries. With federal bellwethers in MDL 3047 underway, the open question is whether the scientific causation behind a given claim can withstand a coordinated, well-funded defense. That is an evidence question — and it is the one we answer.

2026 · JURY VERDICT
$6M  KGM v. Meta & YouTube

A design-defect claim cleared Section 230 and reached a jury — and a damages award.

2025 · SETTLEMENT
$27M  Breathitt County

A school-district settlement signaled the institutional plaintiff wave now forming behind the personal-injury docket.

2023–24 · §230 RULINGS
Design-defect theory

Courts in MDL 3047 let product-design claims proceed past the Section 230 shield, opening the causation fight.

Anchor facts tracked from the live dockets. Dates and figures verified against primary filings on engagement.

02 The evidence question

The science is real — and it is genuinely contested.

Plaintiffs anchor causation in attention, working memory, sleep disruption, and compulsive-use pathways. The defense has a disciplined counter-playbook — and a funder, carrier, or trial team that cannot independently weigh both sides is pricing risk on someone else's say-so.

01
The diagnostic-ambiguity argument

"Social-media addiction" is absent from the DSM-5 — so the behavior is habit, not pathology.

02
The confounding-variable argument

Pre-existing adverse experiences and off-platform factors — not the product — explain the injury.

03
The effect-size argument

Large population studies put social media at roughly 0.4% of the variance in adolescent well-being — framed by the defense as moral panic.

We weigh these arguments — vector by vector, at the certainty the evidence actually supports.

03 The deliverable

Platform-Harm Litigation: an Independent Evidence & Causation-Strength Assessment.

A 25- to 40-page evaluation of the underlying psychiatric epidemiology and neurocognitive science, graded for certainty, delivered within four weeks of engagement.

Certainty scale GRADE-informed. Every vector is graded honestly — including where the evidence is weak. GRADE is the standard framework used in evidence-based medicine and Cochrane reviews to rate how much confidence a body of evidence deserves, from High to Very low.
High
Further research is unlikely to change the estimate.
Moderate
Further research may well change the estimate.
Low
Further research is likely to change the estimate.
Very low
Any estimate is very uncertain.
What we grade, and how

Each Assessment grades six harm vectors one at a time: depression, anxiety, sleep disruption, attention and working memory, body image and eating pathology, and self-harm and suicidality. For each, we report a GRADE-informed certainty level and a plain account of where the evidence holds and where it breaks.

We do not flatter the science. In this litigation, most vectors currently grade Low to Very low, and the Assessment says so, one vector at a time. Full gradings are matter-specific and delivered in the engagement, not posted here.

01Depression
02Anxiety
03Sleep disruption
04Attention & working memory
05Body image & eating pathology
06Self-harm & suicidality
What the assessment contains
01
Causation-Strength Matrix

Vector-by-vector grading — depression, anxiety, sleep, attention & working memory, body image & eating pathology, self-harm — each rated for evidentiary strength and certainty, with where it holds and where it is contestable.

02
Physiological Pathways

The sleep-displacement and arousal mechanisms, the strength of the mediation evidence, and — stated plainly — its limits.

03
Neurocognitive Evidence Brief

The current peer-reviewed synthesis on short-form-video delivery mechanics and cognition — reported at the magnitude and certainty the source authors actually assign.

04
The Contested Terrain

A neutral map of how each harm vector is attacked and defended — DSM ambiguity, confounds, effect-size disputes, proxy-metric limitations. Equally useful to a funder assessing merit and a team anticipating the fight.

Delivered as a PDF with a one-page executive summary and a fully sourced appendix. Four weeks from engagement.

04 Why him

Authored by a behavioral scientist whose discipline is the grading of evidence itself.

Shawn Fraine, MA
Principal · Independent assessor
Peer-reviewed meta-analyst, 500+ citations.Co-author of a meta-analysis in Trauma, Violence, & Abuse. Meta-analysis is the formal discipline of grading how strong a body of science is — which is precisely what this work requires.
Research operations at scale.Background in psychometric instrument design and large-scale research operations within the Department of Psychological & Brain Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis.
Trained in clinical method and statistics.Graduate training in clinical psychology, and graduate-level instruction in research design and statistics.
Independent and strictly non-testifying.Engagements carry no advocacy posture. The product is an honest read of the evidence — nothing more, and nothing less.
05 How engagements work
Engagement types

The independent Assessment, available to any party — and confidential consulting support for counsel, conflict-checked and limited to one side per matter.

Independence & confidentiality

Engagements are non-testifying. When retained through counsel, the work is generally protected as consulting work product. Independence is preserved by declining matter-specific work for opposing parties in the same case.

Charter terms

A limited number of charter engagements — two or three — are offered at $5,000 to establish the first named results. Standard engagements are quoted by matter. Four-week turnaround. A 50% retainer initiates the build.

06 Proof of the standard

See the calibrated quality before you engage.

Sample — how a single citation is reported

Ebster et al. (2026), a systematic review in European Child & Adolescent Psychiatry (42 studies, N = 46,912), found heavy short-form-video use consistently associated with poorer attention, working memory, and self-regulation, with effects ranging from small to moderate-to-large. The authors graded the evidence low to very-low certainty and described it as predominantly cross-sectional, China-weighted, self-reported, and provisional rather than causal.

For a pooled quantitative estimate, the companion meta-analysis is Nguyen et al. (2025), Psychological Bulletin — read in primary form before it appears in any assessment.

A redacted one-page excerpt and the current evidence brief are made available to qualified parties on request — ask in the scope memo.

07 Methodology

The citation-integrity standard.

Every study named on this site — and in every assessment — is read in primary form and calibrated to what that source actually concludes.

No secondhand summaries.
No upgrading a systematic review to a meta-analysis.
No inflating a low-certainty finding into a confident one.
The grade reported is the grade the source authors assigned.

In this market, one inflated citation is disqualifying. The standard is the product.

08 Questions

What funders, insurers, and counsel ask first.

What is the Meridian Evidence & Causation Assessment?

An independent, methodologically rigorous assessment of the behavioral and neurocognitive evidence behind social-media harm claims. It is a 25–40 page report that grades the underlying science for certainty using GRADE, delivered within four weeks of engagement.

Who is the Assessment for?

Litigation funders, insurers, and counsel who need to independently weigh the scientific causation behind platform-harm claims in MDL 3047 and related state actions before pricing risk.

What is GRADE, and why does it matter here?

GRADE is the standard framework used in evidence-based medicine and Cochrane reviews to rate how much confidence a body of evidence deserves, from High to Very low. Each harm vector in the Assessment is graded using GRADE — including where the evidence is weak.

Which harm vectors does the Assessment grade?

Six vectors, one at a time: depression, anxiety, sleep disruption, attention and working memory, body image and eating pathology, and self-harm and suicidality.

Who authors the Assessments?

Shawn Fraine, MA — a behavioral scientist and peer-reviewed meta-analyst, co-author of a meta-analysis in Trauma, Violence, & Abuse, with a background in psychometric instrument design and research operations in the Department of Psychological & Brain Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis.

Is the work independent, and what does it cost?

The Assessment is independent, non-testifying, and conflict-checked. A limited number of charter engagements — two or three — are offered at $5,000 to establish the first named results; standard engagements are quoted by matter. Turnaround is four weeks, with a 50% retainer to initiate the build.

Contact

Request the scope memo and a confidential consultation.

All inquiries are treated confidentially. NDA on request. No phone wall, no calendar gimmicks — a clean note is enough to begin.